Pacaya dry season 2026-27

When does the 2026-27 dry season start and end at Pacaya?

Roughly November to April. INSIVUMEH expects the cold season to begin in the second half of October 2026 and run to early March, into April in some areas.

Guatemala has two seasons that matter for a hike: wet from about May to October, dry from about November to April. The tour operator behind the shared hike from Antigua uses the same split on its listing, with "warm, sunny days with cooler temperatures at the top" from November to April and afternoon rain from May to October.

For this winter, the weather service INSIVUMEH says the cold season starts in the second half of October and lasts until the first half of March, stretching into April in parts of the country (Infobae, 3 October 2026). October itself is still wet. Late October is a coin toss; mid November is a safe bet.

How will El Niño change this dry season?

Drier and slightly warmer than normal. INSIVUMEH and Universidad del Valle expect a very strong El Niño, temperatures 0.3 to 1.2 °C above average from December to March, and a dry season that sets in firmly in November and December.

A forecast published on 14 October 2026 by Prensa Libre, based on INSIVUMEH and the environmental studies centre at Universidad del Valle, says El Niño is already active and will turn "very strong". October still runs 5 to 25% wetter than normal. After that, El Niño blocks incoming weather and the dry season locks in.

For a hiker that is mostly good news: fewer wet days on the trail. The catch is wind. INSIVUMEH expects up to 16 north-wind systems and cold fronts between November and March (Infobae), and on an exposed lava field high on the volcano a cold front means a hard, chilly wind. Bring a real jacket in December and January, even if Antigua feels warm at lunch.

Should you take the morning or afternoon departure in the dry season?

Morning for the clearest views of Agua, Fuego and Acatenango; afternoon if you want to be on the lava field near sunset and do not mind coming down with a headlamp.

The flagship tour leaves Antigua at 06:00 or 14:00. The drive is about 1.5 hours each way, then about 1.5 hours up, 30 minutes at the top and 50 minutes down, according to the listing. On the 14:00 departure you reach the lava field around 17:00, which in the dry season is just before sunset.

We calculated sunset for Pacaya's coordinates across the season. In November and December the sun sets around 17:30, so the afternoon group walks down in the dark. By March it is after 18:00 and the timing is easier. Dry-season haze builds through the day, so the morning group gets the sharper view of the three volcanoes to the west. The afternoon group gets the colours.

One practical point: the operator warns that afternoon traffic around Antigua can mean a central pickup point instead of your hotel for the 14:00 tour. Expect that more often on holiday weekends. If a guided ride appeals more than a walk, the sunset horseback ride is built around this exact hour.

How busy will Christmas, New Year and Semana Santa 2027 be?

Very. Antigua hotels run 40 to 70% above normal from 22 December to 2 January, and Semana Santa 2027 runs from Palm Sunday 21 March to Easter Sunday 28 March.

Pacaya is a day trip, and most people sleep in Antigua. When Antigua fills, the shuttles fill. Living in Guatemala puts year-end hotel rates 40 to 70% above normal and advises booking three to four months ahead for a room in the centre.

Semana Santa is another level. Holy Week 2027 starts on Palm Sunday, 21 March, with Good Friday on 26 March and Easter on 28 March; Lent starts on Ash Wednesday, 10 February. Antigua's processions draw huge crowds, streets close for the carpets, and the same source says central hotels sell out in May or June of the year before, with a Q600 room going for Q1,200 to Q1,500. If your trip lands in that week, hike Pacaya on the Monday or Tuesday and keep Thursday and Friday for the processions.

How far ahead should you book a Pacaya tour this season?

One to two weeks for ordinary dates in November and January, three to four weeks for Christmas and New Year, and as soon as your flights are set for Semana Santa.

Shared tours run daily and rarely sell out on a quiet weekday. Holiday weeks are different. Plan the small-group options early: the morning tour with lunch uses private transport and needs at least two people per booking.

Every Pacaya tour on this site cancels for a full refund up to 24 hours before, which makes early booking almost risk-free. The exception is the two-day Acatenango trip, which is non-refundable; our Pacaya vs Acatenango guide explains what you are signing up for there. What you pay on top of the tour price is in our post on the 2026 park fee.

The classic shared hike from Antigua at 06:00 or 14:00. The Q100 park fee is paid in cash at the gate.

★ 4.5 · 6 hours · from $35

Explore the shared hike from Antigua → Tour details

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